So, who said tariffs would derail the container shipping boom?
According to a recent CareEdge Ratings report, India’s container cargo volume is expected to grow by a solid 8%, reaching approximately 380 million metric tonnes (MMT) in FY26—despite steep 50% US tariffs on certain Indian exports.
What’s Driving the Uptick?
- Diversified export flow
While the US represents around 20% of India’s total exports, it accounts for under 5% of sea-based trade (excluding electronics). In other words, losing some US shipments barely dents the overall container volume. - Surging infrastructure & freight corridors
The growth pickup is powered by expanded port capacity—like the new facilities at JNPT (2.4 million TEUs) and Vizhinjam (1 million TEUs)—and the nearing completion of the Western Dedicated Freight Corridor, which boosts inland logistics. - Geopolitical hiccups, resilience intact
Cargo volumes remained buoyant in FY25 (+11% to 351 MMT), despite global disruptions from the Panama Canal, Red Sea blockages, and other trade shocks. FY26 is expected to continue the upward trajectory, albeit at a more modest pace .
The Silver Lining (and the Caution Flag)
On the upside
- Container-heavy growth: The projected 8% leap in container volume outpaces overall port growth, estimated at just 2% in FY26, a testament to shifting trade patterns.
On the cautious side
- Broader challenges loom: Rising insurance premiums, fluctuations in global freight rates, and longer transit times—especially for Shanghai lanes—could slow growth later in the fiscal year.
Featured Quote“Despite geopolitical disruptions, cargo traffic had strong growth in the first four months of the year—up 5.1% YoY.”
— Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Supply chain strategists and port operators: This report signals a strong but nuanced container outlook for India. It’s time to map strategy around rising inland connectivity, growing eastern coast activity, and hedging against tariff-driven volatility.
Let me know if you’d like a cargo routing forecast, infrastructure roll-out timelines, or port-level projections—happy to help model what’s next.
